World Could See Increase In Tropical Development’s Intensity and Frequency

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Climate change could cause more tropical storms and hurricanes to spawn by the turn of the century. That’s according to a recently released study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences from a Massachusetts Institute of Technology climate researcher.

According to the researcher Kerry Emanuel, the world could see at least 20 more tropical storms and hurricanes.  He said around 90 tropical cycles develop every year throughout the world. Emanuel said he uses the term tropical cyclone to describe hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, which is the same kind of storm but located in different regions of the world.

His study used six advanced global climate computer models to mimic upcoming hurricane activity throughout the world. What he found is that the killer storms are likely to increase in their intensity and frequency in the majority of locations during the 21^st century.

The study, he said, suggests that the biggest increase could happen in the western North Pacific area but there would be notable increases in the North Atlantic and South Indian Ocean areas as well. The majority of hurricanes that hit the United States form in the Atlantic Ocean.

Storms with a ranking of Category 3 (winds of 111mph or more) or higher (4 and 5) are categorized as being a major hurricane.

Judith Curry, a Georgia Tech climatologist, did not take part in the study but said the study’s conclusions are based on copious amounts of assumptions that have limited support from observations and theories. She said there are significant uncertainties. Curry said she doesn’t give too much thought into studies that predict the future of tropical cyclone activity using climate models.

Roger Pielke, Jr. a University of Colorado environmental studies professor, also did not take part in the study, said Emanuel is a brilliant scientist and that he trusts what work he has done regarding the study and its conclusions.

Pielke said research he has done proposes the ability to find indications of climate changed based on human actions and their impact on tropical development could take decades or centuries.

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Posted by News on Jul 10 2013. Filed under Featured, New. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.